Thursday, August 27, 2020

A prediction (A hope?)

 For left-leaning people or centrists who think defeating Trump will heal the country, I have bad news: a single election isn't going to do it. The Democrats have to be committed to creating landslides from here on out.

Biden is far from my first choice for president, but he's the best one to run for this election. The Left might think Trump's disastrous term affords a grand opportunity to guide the country Left, but no, it isn't that. It's just a chance to stop the hemorrhaging.

(BTW, I laugh off suggestions that Biden has dementia. Maybe he's short of sleep some days, but dementia is nonsense. I also laugh it off the same suggestions about Trump. People think it's easy to diagnose a syndrome that's only positively identified by autopsy, and when diagnoses are most difficult tasks physicians have.)  

The GOP must be defeated, and it must be in a landslide. They had a chance to remove Trump and they cynically refused. If I were religious, I would see God's judgment in how right on the heels of Trump's acquittal, both COVID and an economic recession both hit us. (Yes, the recession started in February, independent of COVID.)

For their support of Trump, their failure to remove him, GOP's in Congress and everywhere deserve ignominy. For the corruption of our government, for backing Trump in his incompetent response to COVID, I hope they continue to lose subsequent elections to the point where they become a regional party at best.

If that happens, I expect the Democratic Party will split between the liberals and the centrists. The GOP's ideological and electoral competition are the only forces keeping the two factions together. The unity isn't viable in the long run.

I see Biden as transitional. Since guys his age are known to frequently die, Biden is probably transient as well. Yes, he's a centrist. He (and/or Harris) will have to make the choice whether he's going to screw the wealthy by taxing them, or screw his base by embracing business interests. It might seem he's already made the choice, but I don't presume that, despite indications of leaning toward the wealthy. The wealthy are used to getting their way, so they're easy to pwn. He knows it's not viable to maintain Clinton/Obama triangulation. So, either his voting or his financial constituency is going to get screwed. 

However, he won't have that choice if the GOP remains competitive.

I give a disclaimer to all my predictions: we live in an intrinsically unpredictable universe. Guesses about the future that aren't scientifically tested are almost always wrong.

Also, if Trump stays in power, nothing I've predicted here even applies.  My predictions on that contingency are all uniformly dire.