Voting Rights Act? We Need an Amendment

 Maybe a Voting Rights Act is what we have to settle for in immediately. But really, nothing short of a constitutional amendment will fix the problems in the long-term.

The SCOTUS has shown it can knock down any VRAct that they wish to. However, they do have a good basis for having that power. The original US Constitution says nothing about the popular vote. At the time, popular vote was hardly even a political theory, and it was impossible in 1789 to take a popular vote for president. Because the states had literally created the federal government, they started out with having greater political power than the central government. So, they were left their choice in conducting elections. The results: only 4% of the free male population had any privilege of voting.

It isn't until 1868 that the 14th Amendment was enacted, that a right to vote is mentioned, but without a previous precedent in the constitution, it hangs in mid-air.

The 14th Amendment dictates several rules to the states. In the first section, it says anyone born in or naturalized as a US citizen has equal rights and privileges, the state could not pick and choose which ones had rights. That sets up the second section, that covers specifically the right to vote:

"Representatives shall be apportioned among the several states according to their respective numbers, counting the whole number of persons in each state, excluding Indians not taxed. But when the right to vote at any election for the choice of electors for President and Vice President of the United States, Representatives in Congress, the executive and judicial officers of a state, or the members of the legislature thereof, is denied to any of the male inhabitants of such state, being twenty-one years of age, and citizens of the United States, or in any way abridged, except for participation in rebellion, or other crime, the basis of representation therein shall be reduced in the proportion which the number of such male citizens shall bear to the whole number of male citizens twenty-one years of age in such state." 

[Emphasis mine, the links are from the source, and explain the later amendments made to reflect universal suffrage and the voting age changed to eighteen.]

Prior to this, the states determined who had the right to vote. It did make

Just in case the states didn't get the message (because the ex-Confederate states weren't), the 15th Amendment was ratified in 1870, it said:

Section 1:

"The right of citizens of the United States to vote shall not be denied or abridged by the United States or by any state on account of race, color, or previous condition of servitude."

Section 2:

"The Congress shall have power to enforce this article by appropriate legislation."

At this stage, it's apparent that the general Right to Vote was no longer just a political theory, but would be the practice from then on.

But still, the details pertaining to the right to vote weren't mentioned. This left the states to still select who had the right, as long as it wasn't due to race, color, or previous servitude. If they could find exceptions for other reasons that corresponded approximately to race. This let all kinds of abuses and methods pass through. It also didn't give the states any obligation to make voting easy, nor to gerrymander fairly, nor did it regulate the obligations the states had in regards to the voting rolls.

The SCOTUS pretty much killed the Voting Rights Act in 2013 in the Shelby County vs Holder, repealing two key provisions . These allowed the states that had a history of voter discrimination to start practicing it again.

The conservative constructionists/originalists could do it because the original Constitution doesn't define the right to vote. Therefore, they could say the Founders didn't care about it. Without reference to the intent of the Founders, the conservative SCOTUS felt free to impose its own standard.

Only a Voting Rights Amendment will take the decision out of their hands, and keep the legislative enforcement to the Congress where it belongs. 

 

 

AFTER THE AFTERMATH,: WHAT WE SHOULD LOOK FORWARD TO

 My entry yesterday was depressing. But after the next eight months or so, the future will get brighter. In fact, with a little luck, things will be better than any time since the early '60s.

Disclaimers: accurately conjecturing about the future is impossible and depends only on luck. We live in an inherently random universe. What we see as order is only the things our senses are evolved to perceive.

Also, this presumes that the Biden Administration will be somewhat more than competent, that the mutant strains of COVID are at least tractable, and of course, that another deadly pandemic from a different germ doesn't start.

But it's still fun to look ahead and hope.

About COVID aftereffects:

-A vaccination program will begin to turn the tide of the virus in 2022. COVID will continue diminishing waves. PPE protocols will be enforced depending on the severity of the virus.

-Scientific advances made in fighting this virus will yield advances in treatments of other diseases.

-Public health will be taken much more seriously, and receive a great uptick in funding and employment. We'll be more than ready for the next disease outbreak.

-A new healthcare system will be enacted, building on what's left of Obamacare.

-Religion will diminish in both political power and popularity; if for no other reason but because people will be out of the habit of going to church.*1 Once the habit is broken, most won't get it back. For example, for the first time ever reported a decline in active membership. It'll decline, but won't be extinct.

-Those who scoffed COVID will be hit the hardest when the final body count is counted, causing a decline in rural areas, which will be rescued with government programs.

-When the epidemic is over, expect survivors to come out of their isolation to be ecstatic, almost giddy. Expect things to be absolutely nuts for weeks. Expect a sudden, if modest, baby boom.

-Also, when its over, expect businesses to rebound, and wages offered to be great. But there will be big changes, both from industries that won't come back, and brand new industries. A generation's habits will be permanently changed. Also, expect there to be a government programs to start farms and repopulate rural areas and small towns. There will also be programs.

-And kids will actually love to go to school.

-Expect crime to decline.

-As much as I hate to point this out, in the end, survivors will likely benefit economically from the lower population and the change in age demographics. However, this will be diminished by people permanently disabled by the virus.

 And now the consequent outcomes of the Donald J. Trump and the insurrection:

-The court cases over the Trump-initiated attacks on Dominion Voting Systems have led to lawsuits against conservative outlets/commentators who repeated and amplified Trump's baseless claims. Harassed Dominion staffers were targeted by Trump cadres for harassment and death threats. They have sued Fox News, Lou Dobbs, etc, for defamation, and have forced them to retract. However, the harassment didn't stop. With clear malice and demonstrable damage, the plaintiff have a very strong, almost airtight case. It can put the entire conservative propaganda apparatus out of business. This will further the decline in conservatism.

-After the government gets through putting out all the Trump-ignited fires, reforms in our government will be proposed, at least a few will be constitutional Amendments, and many of them will be passed. Among the changes that might be made: a roll-back of the power of the president and executive branch, and laws which prescribe statutory penalties for dereliction and abuse; the abolishment--or at least a change--in the electoral college; statehood for Washington DC and Puerto Rico, a Voting Rights Constitutional amendment which will include further transparency in elections, limits on gerrymandering, and campaign finance reform; much stronger laws about privacy; and, of course, more laws on domestic terrorism and insurgency.

-Section 230 of the 1996 telecom act will be altered. I won't conjecture on type of change.

-Expect a rethink in the design of computers to at least be initiated by 2024. Also, a project for a redesign of the World Wide Web, Internet 2.0 will at least be in the works. The emphasis for both will be on much tighter security protocols. Expect fiber-optic networks to spread throughout the entire country. All of this in anticipation for quantum computing.

-Expect a worldwide conference, and treaties to be negotiated limiting governments' use of hacking, the use of drones, and the disallowing the development of soldierbots.

-A new treaty with Iran will be in negotiation at least until 2024.

-A new international treaty about climate change will be signed, based on the Paris Accords.

-As things get better, and they will, the Trump years will be remembered as either a nightmare, or the worst part of a 20 or 40-year nightmare. COVID-19 will probably called the Trump Virus. I'm more certain that the historically horrible year of 2020 is going to be associated with Trump, just like the year 1929 belongs to Hoover.

For a final note: we lost a lot of time to mitigate the effects of climate change. I won't conjecture on the effects it will have, and it might have some good effects in some places, as a whole it'll be a negative change for the US and the world. I won't conjecture beyond that.

*1 Clergy and ministers know this, know that their revenues will be in decline which is why some are so stubbornly insisting that their followers must continue with weekly church attendance. All this will do is assure that their flocks are hit worse by COVID, and will know attending church caused it. Also, once away from weekly faith reinforcement, ex-congs will begin to notice just how wealthy televangelists have become, and more importantly, they'll resent it, 

*2 The political Right would've opposed PPE even without Trump's influence. Trump has good instincts about power, and knew he could only ahead of the issue by going extreme anti-mask and underplaying the problem. Conservatives sense that COVID is a direct challenge to their individualism, a cornerstone of their ideology. Epidemics can't be stopped without organized measures and cooperation, totally antithetical to individualism. 

DON'T BLAME PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN FOR THESE CONSEQUENCES

 Tomorrow, I'll post the good things that I believe might happen when the troubles all shake out. But I'm not in the mood for that today.

This afternoon, I'm making a list of what I believe are inevitable consequences we'll suffer, NO MATTER WHAT BIDEN DOES.

With more transmittable mutant strains of Covid spreading here and abroad, all with unpredictable symptoms and mortality, I think these will be the consequences:

-Expect the total deaths from COVID to double in the US by summer. A SIGNIFICANT number will be children.

-By then, every survivor will have a friend or family member who died of COVID. By the end of the year, every survivor might know two or more people who died of it.

-The economy in the US is going to get worse.

-International trade is going to grind almost to a halt.

Results from the Trump unrest (with COVID spreading):

-Right Wing terrorism will grow into the spring. It might start to diminish then, when hopes for Trump reclaiming the throne fade, or if COVID decimates them. 

-Some state houses might be taken, and we'll have state governments in exile, at least for week or two. But finally, they will fail. The Republic won't buckle.

-More law enforcement will be killed or injured by RW terrorists than done by BLM in the last five years. (Because Blue Lives Matter, unless they oppose Trump terrorists.)

-COVID will turn disproportionately harsh in rural areas that lack access to medical care, and it won't relent until the terrorism dies down.

-It will also grow disproportionately hard on RW terrorists, because of their COVID denial, their conspiracy delusions about it, AND THEIR POLITICAL CORRECTNESS ABOUT PPE. /s

-The rebellion will weaken government relief and vaccination programs. They will be minimal at least until summer.

-Some cities will suffer at least limited blockades by RW terrorists in the countryside.

-We'll see a lot of homeless, and endemic starvation in public, which will aggravate the epidemic.

-The military will have to be mobilized to retake some state houses, but the Republic itself won't be threatened.

-We'll lose important ground on the world stage, and then we'll realize just how important our high prestige in the world had been to our quality of life. 

-We'll have to import MORE products and food, adding to our trade deficit, and making industry flight and outsourcing more prevalent, not less. (The very opposite of Trump's promises.)

-We'll also have to bring in more immigrants due to labor shortages. (Also, the very opposite of Trump's promises.).

-The value of government bonds will decline, and we'll probably see a rating hit. This will make funding a recovery and other programs much more difficult.

I believe these outcomes are already set. Of course, the future is inherently unpredictable, but don't blame President Biden or a Democratic Congress for these things.

They will happen because of actions and inactions by Trump, his enablers, and his followers. Their cynicism about government itself; their hatred of Democrats, Liberals, science, outsourcing, etc, their laundry list of hatreds; and their hate-driven conspiracy fantasies.

Trump has been a disaster for the US on the order of another, if a non-nuclear (so far) World War.

I won't guess about or call for punishment for him. It's up to the DOJ to investigate and see what charges it can make, and then it's up to the judicial branch. It's completely unpredictable. 

However, for those who still justify Trump's actions over the last four years I have some advice: you better pray there's no God, because IMHO, that would be your best chance to avoid joining Trump in Hell. Yes, I'm an atheist, but anybody can be wrong.  

PS. If this is winning, I'm tired of it. So, Trump did, hypothetically, keep one promise.

WE MUST BE TRIPPING

On days like this, I wonder if pollutants haven't poisoned the brains of 60% of our population while psychiatric meds flattened the emotions and detached the thinking of at least 50% (with overlap). I just remember people not clouding their minds with hatred, way out of proportion to transgressions, and not generating fantasy reasons to hate their targets even more.

Also, how is it our leadership (on psych meds?) reacts with cool deliberation after being terrorized by a murderous mob? I can't imagine this in the '50s & '60s.

You wouldn't see this in the 19th century, when alcohol and nicotine were the principal anti-depressants, and in an environment with reduced pollutants. No, then, a Senator could beat another one within an inch of his life on the Senate floor, and be cheered. I call that a very focused, very limited riot.

Hey, when lead was phased out of gasoline the murder rate dropped. It dropped the same way in EVERY COUNTRY WHEN IT WAS REMOVED. Our brains operate on chemicals. Chemicals that get into our brains affect our thinking and emotions and in unpredictable ways.

It's quite possible that the hatred, chaos, and social stagnation that has seized our society is nothing more than a continuous, collective drug trip, with unfortunate real-world consequences.