Friday, November 22, 2019

I don't think impeachment can help the president


No, the impeachment won't help Trump, and neither will anything else. Since his inauguration, every poll has shown Trump's approval/support at an immobile, but flat, 42%. All of them might kick in money to his campaign, but the indications are his "brand" has reached its limit. In the meantime, Trump's rallies and political actions appeal only to that same 42%, merely persuading the persuaded. He won't (and can't) step out of his comfort zone.

This is especially bad for him, considering he isn't going to get the protest vote that he had in 2016. This time, no substantial third-party candidate is likely to siphon votes from the Democratic candidate. Also, nobody will underestimate him in 2020. It's going to take a shitload of gerrymandering, voter suppression, and foreign interference to stretch Trump's appeal into another national victory. Will social media disinformation help him? Except for the dedicated 42%, who are also addicted to conspiracy theories, people are more jaded about it.

Yes, the disparity in donations looks daunting, until you consider Trump's mendacity is encouraging corruption in the entire GOP, who pretty much consider government a for-profit business for their enrichment anyway. A lot of the donated money will disappear.

The economy being good on paper doesn't mean s**t after Trump showed he'll Sharpie up a weather report to avoid mere embarrassment; why wouldn't he also order economic statistics buggered? Trump's so addicted to foisting big lies that no important government statistic should be trusted now.

Even as the congressional GOP has protected Trump, current polls and election results are dire for them, and worse whenever Trump openly supports them. They're in a threesome marriage with same 42%. If they're certain he's endangering their job security, they'll throw him under the bus so fast he'll end up under the steamroller in the other lane.

No, the outlook isn't good for Trump. Even if it's unlikely the Senate fires him (which is all the House is trying to do), the level of corruption uncovered is going to motivate rather than discourage Democrats, who substantially outnumber Republicans overall. Also, when the impeachment is out of the way, the Dems will be focused. Whereas the Republicans who aren't excited about Trump (and yes, there are a substantial number) are going to arrive at the polls nauseated if they even show up at all. They will need clothespins on their noses and bags over their heads to vote Republican now.

So despite Trump's supporters' forced, self-deceived optimism, he is a one-term-or-less president. When he's gone it's likely he'll leave the GOP a hollowed out and shrinking regional party at best. The Democrats, by contrast, will be battle-hardened. No matter how he's deposed, however, he's either going to leave screaming and kicking, or via a natural death. Of that, I have no doubt.