Impeachment Trial: The Rematch

Today, in barely less than two hours, we'll see the political bout of the still (sigh😞) young millennium. In one corner, the current champion, only-once defeated, Don "The Cro-Magnon Demagogue" Trump. In this corner are eight Democratic Pencil Necks. The biased referee is the once-greatest legislative body in the world, the US Senate, trying to redeem itself after a decade of Turtle rule. The judge is old enough to be your grandfather's grandfather, bringing wisdom to spare, but with the acuity of a houseplant.

What this means to me personally is I'm not going to get any work done this afternoon, and probably not for the week.

Trump's actions need to be given public trial. It's overdue. The country needs that much.

The consequences of the Senate ratifying the charges? He'll be barred from office, but more immediately, he'll lose his Secret Service protection. This is important because an attempt to arrest Trump will conflict with the Secret Service's mission to protect him. I think the AG of New York is waiting to see if he has to deal with that in his arrest warrant. Straightening out that inter-agency conflict is going to literally take a court-case on its own, or an Act of Congress and then a court case.   

If he's not found guilty, Congress will then vote on invoking the 14th Amendment against Trump, which would prevent him from ever holding office. The constitutionality of that move isn't in question, and it only takes a simple majority of both Houses.

As important as it is for the country to face Trump's guilt in the insurrection, it's as important that he be barred from office.   

UPDATE: Turns out I figured the time zone wrong. The impeachment already started by the time I posted this. The senate did do something very important: it decided that you can impeach someone who's out of office to keep them from taking office ever again, just like the Constitution obviously says. 

 

We've arrived at the impeachment trial

Trump is going to face trial in the Senate starting Tuesday. Justice John Roberts swore every single Senator to impartiality. What a waste of his time. If I had any illusions that any of the GOP Senators would vote to remove Trump, I despaired at Rachel Maddow's reminder tonight that Vice President Mike Pence is also implicated in the Ukraine scandal. Of course, that was already well-known by anyone with even a passing interest in politics. But Lev Parnas affirmed it.

The third in line to the presidency is the Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi. Republicans will never, ever make her the president for even a single lame-duck year.

All the GOP Senators know that their careers depend on Trump beating the rap. Which of us, when given a choice between saving our jobs or making a fair verdict wouldn't choose saving our jobs? Or at least revise our definitions of fairness and impartiality?

Not that I have sympathy for anyone who's put themselves in that dilemma. If the GOP weren't so pro-corruption now they wouldn't find themselves voting for corruption. They wouldn't be voting to put Trump beyond reach of any justice or oversite.

If Trump is still running the country in another month, expect his corruption to increase and his behavior to deteriorate. According to Barbara Res, who ran the Trump Organization for years, "Once he gets through this, and he probably will, he will exact revenge on a lot of people." (The quote is her last line in the linked video).

I don't think impeachment can help the president

No, the impeachment won't help Trump, and neither will anything else. Since his inauguration, every poll has shown Trump's approval/support at an immobile, but flat, 42%. All of them might kick in money to his campaign, but the indications are his "brand" has reached its limit. In the meantime, Trump's rallies and political actions appeal only to that same 42%, merely persuading the persuaded. He won't (and can't) step out of his comfort zone.

This is especially bad for him, considering he isn't going to get the protest vote that he had in 2016. This time, no substantial third-party candidate is likely to siphon votes from the Democratic candidate. Also, nobody will underestimate him in 2020. It's going to take a shitload of gerrymandering, voter suppression, and foreign interference to stretch Trump's appeal into another national victory. Will social media disinformation help him? Except for the dedicated 42%, who are also addicted to conspiracy theories, people are more jaded about it.

Yes, the disparity in donations looks daunting, until you consider Trump's mendacity is encouraging corruption in the entire GOP, who pretty much consider government a for-profit business for their enrichment anyway. A lot of the donated money will disappear.

The economy being good on paper doesn't mean s**t after Trump showed he'll Sharpie up a weather report to avoid mere embarrassment; why wouldn't he also order economic statistics buggered? Trump's so addicted to foisting big lies that no important government statistic should be trusted now.

Even as the congressional GOP has protected Trump, current polls and election results are dire for them, and worse whenever Trump openly supports them. They're in a threesome marriage with same 42%. If they're certain he's endangering their job security, they'll throw him under the bus so fast he'll end up under the steamroller in the other lane.

No, the outlook isn't good for Trump. Even if it's unlikely the Senate fires him (which is all the House is trying to do), the level of corruption uncovered is going to motivate rather than discourage Democrats, who substantially outnumber Republicans overall. Also, when the impeachment is out of the way, the Dems will be focused. Whereas the Republicans who aren't excited about Trump (and yes, there are a substantial number) are going to arrive at the polls nauseated if they even show up at all. They will need clothespins on their noses and bags over their heads to vote Republican now.

So despite Trump's supporters' forced, self-deceived optimism, he is a one-term-or-less president. When he's gone it's likely he'll leave the GOP a hollowed out and shrinking regional party at best. The Democrats, by contrast, will be battle-hardened. No matter how he's deposed, however, he's either going to leave screaming and kicking, or via a natural death. Of that, I have no doubt.