A prediction (A hope?)

 For left-leaning people or centrists who think defeating Trump will heal the country, I have bad news: a single election isn't going to do it. The Democrats have to be committed to creating landslides from here on out.

Biden is far from my first choice for president, but he's the best one to run for this election. The Left might think Trump's disastrous term affords a grand opportunity to guide the country Left, but no, it isn't that. It's just a chance to stop the hemorrhaging.

(BTW, I laugh off suggestions that Biden has dementia. Maybe he's short of sleep some days, but dementia is nonsense. I also laugh it off the same suggestions about Trump. People think it's easy to diagnose a syndrome that's only positively identified by autopsy, and when diagnoses are most difficult tasks physicians have.)  

The GOP must be defeated, and it must be in a landslide. They had a chance to remove Trump and they cynically refused. If I were religious, I would see God's judgment in how right on the heels of Trump's acquittal, both COVID and an economic recession both hit us. (Yes, the recession started in February, independent of COVID.)

For their support of Trump, their failure to remove him, GOP's in Congress and everywhere deserve ignominy. For the corruption of our government, for backing Trump in his incompetent response to COVID, I hope they continue to lose subsequent elections to the point where they become a regional party at best.

If that happens, I expect the Democratic Party will split between the liberals and the centrists. The GOP's ideological and electoral competition are the only forces keeping the two factions together. The unity isn't viable in the long run.

I see Biden as transitional. Since guys his age are known to frequently die, Biden is probably transient as well. Yes, he's a centrist. He (and/or Harris) will have to make the choice whether he's going to screw the wealthy by taxing them, or screw his base by embracing business interests. It might seem he's already made the choice, but I don't presume that, despite indications of leaning toward the wealthy. The wealthy are used to getting their way, so they're easy to pwn. He knows it's not viable to maintain Clinton/Obama triangulation. So, either his voting or his financial constituency is going to get screwed. 

However, he won't have that choice if the GOP remains competitive.

I give a disclaimer to all my predictions: we live in an intrinsically unpredictable universe. Guesses about the future that aren't scientifically tested are almost always wrong.

Also, if Trump stays in power, nothing I've predicted here even applies.  My predictions on that contingency are all uniformly dire.  

The infamy of the Trump presidency

Trump says the Corona Virus is "ashes." More magical thinking, more ignoring, more avoiding. More criminal negligence.

We now have, by official count, 115,784 deaths from CV-19. This is with 584 dying just so far today.

By comparison: In World War I, the 116,516 US soldiers killed.

The number of US deaths from Corona will surpass our country's World War I deaths either today or tomorrow.

The Trump administration has now been demonstrably worse for America than a World War. Simultaneously, he's probably also worse than the Great Depression.

He is THE WORST president ever, and it's not even close. It's hard to think of a worse person we could have entrusted the office of the president. 😡

https://factba.se/topic/calendar

Trump says the Corona Virus is "ashes." More magical thinking, more ignoring, more avoiding. More criminal negligence.

We now have, by official count, 115,784 deaths from CV-19. This is with 584 dying just so far today.

By comparison: In World War I, the 116,516 US soldiers killed.

The number of US deaths from Corona will surpass our country's World War I deaths either today or tomorrow.

The Trump administration has now been demonstrably worse for America than a World War. Simultaneously, he's probably also worse than the Great Depression.

He is THE WORST president ever, and it's not even close. It's hard to think of a worse person we could have entrusted the office of the president. 😡

https://factba.se/topic/calendar

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_military_casualties_of_war

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_military_casualties_of_war

About that impeachment

Unless somebody has a devastating trick up their sleeve, the Senate is going to rubberstamp Trump's innocence. The Republican senators are a disgrace. Take note: the only reason why Trump is able to save his job is he has unrelenting vengeance principle that scares the bejesus out of people. He doesn't just hurt anybody who crosses him, he tries to destroy them. Expect Trump to be unleashed after this. As Barbara Res, who used to work for him running the Trump Organization said, he will exact revenge on a lot of people.

Despite Trump getting Russian election help and being otherwise out of control, I really do think the election is the Democrats to lose. Here's the best advice I've heard about how to defeat Trump by someone who knows how to win elections.

I don't think impeachment can help the president

No, the impeachment won't help Trump, and neither will anything else. Since his inauguration, every poll has shown Trump's approval/support at an immobile, but flat, 42%. All of them might kick in money to his campaign, but the indications are his "brand" has reached its limit. In the meantime, Trump's rallies and political actions appeal only to that same 42%, merely persuading the persuaded. He won't (and can't) step out of his comfort zone.

This is especially bad for him, considering he isn't going to get the protest vote that he had in 2016. This time, no substantial third-party candidate is likely to siphon votes from the Democratic candidate. Also, nobody will underestimate him in 2020. It's going to take a shitload of gerrymandering, voter suppression, and foreign interference to stretch Trump's appeal into another national victory. Will social media disinformation help him? Except for the dedicated 42%, who are also addicted to conspiracy theories, people are more jaded about it.

Yes, the disparity in donations looks daunting, until you consider Trump's mendacity is encouraging corruption in the entire GOP, who pretty much consider government a for-profit business for their enrichment anyway. A lot of the donated money will disappear.

The economy being good on paper doesn't mean s**t after Trump showed he'll Sharpie up a weather report to avoid mere embarrassment; why wouldn't he also order economic statistics buggered? Trump's so addicted to foisting big lies that no important government statistic should be trusted now.

Even as the congressional GOP has protected Trump, current polls and election results are dire for them, and worse whenever Trump openly supports them. They're in a threesome marriage with same 42%. If they're certain he's endangering their job security, they'll throw him under the bus so fast he'll end up under the steamroller in the other lane.

No, the outlook isn't good for Trump. Even if it's unlikely the Senate fires him (which is all the House is trying to do), the level of corruption uncovered is going to motivate rather than discourage Democrats, who substantially outnumber Republicans overall. Also, when the impeachment is out of the way, the Dems will be focused. Whereas the Republicans who aren't excited about Trump (and yes, there are a substantial number) are going to arrive at the polls nauseated if they even show up at all. They will need clothespins on their noses and bags over their heads to vote Republican now.

So despite Trump's supporters' forced, self-deceived optimism, he is a one-term-or-less president. When he's gone it's likely he'll leave the GOP a hollowed out and shrinking regional party at best. The Democrats, by contrast, will be battle-hardened. No matter how he's deposed, however, he's either going to leave screaming and kicking, or via a natural death. Of that, I have no doubt.