I don't think impeachment can help the president

No, the impeachment won't help Trump, and neither will anything else. Since his inauguration, every poll has shown Trump's approval/support at an immobile, but flat, 42%. All of them might kick in money to his campaign, but the indications are his "brand" has reached its limit. In the meantime, Trump's rallies and political actions appeal only to that same 42%, merely persuading the persuaded. He won't (and can't) step out of his comfort zone.

This is especially bad for him, considering he isn't going to get the protest vote that he had in 2016. This time, no substantial third-party candidate is likely to siphon votes from the Democratic candidate. Also, nobody will underestimate him in 2020. It's going to take a shitload of gerrymandering, voter suppression, and foreign interference to stretch Trump's appeal into another national victory. Will social media disinformation help him? Except for the dedicated 42%, who are also addicted to conspiracy theories, people are more jaded about it.

Yes, the disparity in donations looks daunting, until you consider Trump's mendacity is encouraging corruption in the entire GOP, who pretty much consider government a for-profit business for their enrichment anyway. A lot of the donated money will disappear.

The economy being good on paper doesn't mean s**t after Trump showed he'll Sharpie up a weather report to avoid mere embarrassment; why wouldn't he also order economic statistics buggered? Trump's so addicted to foisting big lies that no important government statistic should be trusted now.

Even as the congressional GOP has protected Trump, current polls and election results are dire for them, and worse whenever Trump openly supports them. They're in a threesome marriage with same 42%. If they're certain he's endangering their job security, they'll throw him under the bus so fast he'll end up under the steamroller in the other lane.

No, the outlook isn't good for Trump. Even if it's unlikely the Senate fires him (which is all the House is trying to do), the level of corruption uncovered is going to motivate rather than discourage Democrats, who substantially outnumber Republicans overall. Also, when the impeachment is out of the way, the Dems will be focused. Whereas the Republicans who aren't excited about Trump (and yes, there are a substantial number) are going to arrive at the polls nauseated if they even show up at all. They will need clothespins on their noses and bags over their heads to vote Republican now.

So despite Trump's supporters' forced, self-deceived optimism, he is a one-term-or-less president. When he's gone it's likely he'll leave the GOP a hollowed out and shrinking regional party at best. The Democrats, by contrast, will be battle-hardened. No matter how he's deposed, however, he's either going to leave screaming and kicking, or via a natural death. Of that, I have no doubt.

My celebration of Memorial Day, plan B

My Memorial Day plans having fallen through, I've decided to celebrate the day by saying something that needs to be said, something both paradoxical and constructive.

Our country's extreme love of its military has long been unhealthy, not just for us, but for the world. While our soldiers, sailors, airmen, marines and special forces deserve praise, their service is also being abused. The praise for them has been monetized to expand Defense spending that has long been ludicrous. 

It isn't just that trillions of dollars poured into the Pentagon that's been lost and unaccounted for. The one inherent problem with a huge peacetime military is that “peacetime” disappears. Our military is a modern wonder of the world.

But every president faces a problem: what do we do with it? Do we just let it rust? Simply because its so large and so expensive, there's always going to be the irresistible temptation to make it pay off. Otherwise, the money is just wasted. Nobody wants to spend that much for nothing. Even the most peaceful presidents have ended up using the military to intervene with other countries, most with the best intentions. 

Worse, the impressiveness of our soldiers equipped with state-of-the-art weapons leaves our leadership prone to thinking our military can do anything. This is the most dangerous error. Our excursions into Afghanistan and Iraq show the failure of this thinking. The invasions and initial victories were marvels of military prowess. However, the art of nation-building, that so shaped our reconstructions of West Germany and Japan, had been lost. The wartime prowess had eaten the peacetime skills. With so much spent on our military, there's nothing left over for anything like a Marshall Plan.

Moreover, our leaders might not even accept military defeats as possible. Most people learned from Vietnam that “War is hell,” “Give peace a chance.” But the Neocons who took us in Vietnam drew a totally different conclusion. They thought that our military wasn't allowed to fight to its capacity. Protesters, the press, and left-wing politicians conspired to undercut our war effort. Never mind that there really wasn't much in Vietnam to capture, and that a whole hog invasion would have led to direct military conflict with China and Russia. Never mind also that we couldn't bomb the North Vietnamese into the stone age when the country was there anyway. The NeoCons thought Vietnam could be done right.

Therefore, they tried to “do it right” in Afghanistan and Iraq. To prevent the same morass, Conservatives saw to it that reporters were embedded in units so their lives depended on what they wrote; Neocons leaned on the then-consolidated national press to make sure it didn't report on war protests. For students, the solution had been already implemented in '80s when they switched from grant-based college financial aid to a loan-based system. People in debt are not as likely to engage in protests and arrests that might hurt their future income.       

President Donald Trump promised he'll use the military only for America's interests. Yet, he's a liar. We still have troops in 177 countries (yes that number stuns me as well), and we could only find out what they're doing from the foreign press because both the White House and the Pentagon now don't give press briefings. Prior to that, Trump gave the top brass free reign to accomplish their missions. So, now we have renegade operations everywhere, with no hope of getting them under control while General Bonespur is President.

Trump brings into play a whole new danger: a would-be dictator who willingly gives the military anything it dreams of having in exchange for its personal loyalty to him. A Commander-in-Chief who deals out cheap praise and flattery that can make you forget that all of it is empty. Despite his draft-dodging history, it's clear that Trump gets a hard on for hard power, and our military exudes hard power. Trump is not, by any stretch, smart. But he has a tyrant's attraction to power and all its trappings. How ironic if Trump uses the military, the protectors of our freedom, to overthrow the Constitution. It's clear from all his violations that he doesn't understand the document anyway, and doesn't care. I seem to remember he swore to uphold it.

Last, I do love our troops, and I'm awed bravery as much as anybody. Yet, it's that admiration that leads to other young men and women to join the military. Without wars we can't have heroes, and so do we go to war to create heroes? What would so many young people do with their lives otherwise?

To our military of all branches, ranks, and rates, I salute you today, but warn you you're being used and it's about to get worse.