AFTER THE AFTERMATH,: WHAT WE SHOULD LOOK FORWARD TO

 My entry yesterday was depressing. But after the next eight months or so, the future will get brighter. In fact, with a little luck, things will be better than any time since the early '60s.

Disclaimers: accurately conjecturing about the future is impossible and depends only on luck. We live in an inherently random universe. What we see as order is only the things our senses are evolved to perceive.

Also, this presumes that the Biden Administration will be somewhat more than competent, that the mutant strains of COVID are at least tractable, and of course, that another deadly pandemic from a different germ doesn't start.

But it's still fun to look ahead and hope.

About COVID aftereffects:

-A vaccination program will begin to turn the tide of the virus in 2022. COVID will continue diminishing waves. PPE protocols will be enforced depending on the severity of the virus.

-Scientific advances made in fighting this virus will yield advances in treatments of other diseases.

-Public health will be taken much more seriously, and receive a great uptick in funding and employment. We'll be more than ready for the next disease outbreak.

-A new healthcare system will be enacted, building on what's left of Obamacare.

-Religion will diminish in both political power and popularity; if for no other reason but because people will be out of the habit of going to church.*1 Once the habit is broken, most won't get it back. For example, for the first time ever reported a decline in active membership. It'll decline, but won't be extinct.

-Those who scoffed COVID will be hit the hardest when the final body count is counted, causing a decline in rural areas, which will be rescued with government programs.

-When the epidemic is over, expect survivors to come out of their isolation to be ecstatic, almost giddy. Expect things to be absolutely nuts for weeks. Expect a sudden, if modest, baby boom.

-Also, when its over, expect businesses to rebound, and wages offered to be great. But there will be big changes, both from industries that won't come back, and brand new industries. A generation's habits will be permanently changed. Also, expect there to be a government programs to start farms and repopulate rural areas and small towns. There will also be programs.

-And kids will actually love to go to school.

-Expect crime to decline.

-As much as I hate to point this out, in the end, survivors will likely benefit economically from the lower population and the change in age demographics. However, this will be diminished by people permanently disabled by the virus.

 And now the consequent outcomes of the Donald J. Trump and the insurrection:

-The court cases over the Trump-initiated attacks on Dominion Voting Systems have led to lawsuits against conservative outlets/commentators who repeated and amplified Trump's baseless claims. Harassed Dominion staffers were targeted by Trump cadres for harassment and death threats. They have sued Fox News, Lou Dobbs, etc, for defamation, and have forced them to retract. However, the harassment didn't stop. With clear malice and demonstrable damage, the plaintiff have a very strong, almost airtight case. It can put the entire conservative propaganda apparatus out of business. This will further the decline in conservatism.

-After the government gets through putting out all the Trump-ignited fires, reforms in our government will be proposed, at least a few will be constitutional Amendments, and many of them will be passed. Among the changes that might be made: a roll-back of the power of the president and executive branch, and laws which prescribe statutory penalties for dereliction and abuse; the abolishment--or at least a change--in the electoral college; statehood for Washington DC and Puerto Rico, a Voting Rights Constitutional amendment which will include further transparency in elections, limits on gerrymandering, and campaign finance reform; much stronger laws about privacy; and, of course, more laws on domestic terrorism and insurgency.

-Section 230 of the 1996 telecom act will be altered. I won't conjecture on type of change.

-Expect a rethink in the design of computers to at least be initiated by 2024. Also, a project for a redesign of the World Wide Web, Internet 2.0 will at least be in the works. The emphasis for both will be on much tighter security protocols. Expect fiber-optic networks to spread throughout the entire country. All of this in anticipation for quantum computing.

-Expect a worldwide conference, and treaties to be negotiated limiting governments' use of hacking, the use of drones, and the disallowing the development of soldierbots.

-A new treaty with Iran will be in negotiation at least until 2024.

-A new international treaty about climate change will be signed, based on the Paris Accords.

-As things get better, and they will, the Trump years will be remembered as either a nightmare, or the worst part of a 20 or 40-year nightmare. COVID-19 will probably called the Trump Virus. I'm more certain that the historically horrible year of 2020 is going to be associated with Trump, just like the year 1929 belongs to Hoover.

For a final note: we lost a lot of time to mitigate the effects of climate change. I won't conjecture on the effects it will have, and it might have some good effects in some places, as a whole it'll be a negative change for the US and the world. I won't conjecture beyond that.

*1 Clergy and ministers know this, know that their revenues will be in decline which is why some are so stubbornly insisting that their followers must continue with weekly church attendance. All this will do is assure that their flocks are hit worse by COVID, and will know attending church caused it. Also, once away from weekly faith reinforcement, ex-congs will begin to notice just how wealthy televangelists have become, and more importantly, they'll resent it, 

*2 The political Right would've opposed PPE even without Trump's influence. Trump has good instincts about power, and knew he could only ahead of the issue by going extreme anti-mask and underplaying the problem. Conservatives sense that COVID is a direct challenge to their individualism, a cornerstone of their ideology. Epidemics can't be stopped without organized measures and cooperation, totally antithetical to individualism. 

The End of the US

I've never given any credence to doomsday predictions, but even before Al Gore began to speak, I knew Global Warming was going to be a crisis. I used to argue with Conservatives on discussion boards about it. I wrote to one of them, "In five years you're going to agree with me."

I thought the US was going to be especially hard hit. Simply because we were the most productive agricultural country in the world. That meant that any shift in precipitation patterns would likely be unfavorable, and potable water was already precious west of the Mississippi. 

Unfortunately, it turns out I've been right, and if anything I've been too cautious. Anybody following the news knows that the whole state of California is a serious drought. It has year's worth of water left. Experts are telling us that this will now be normal for the state. This means that agriculture is basically finished in the state.

However, if this drought doesn't abate, California is suddenly not going to be able to support its population, which is now close to 40 million. Those people will have to move.

So, imagine them becoming environmental refugees. Imagine the US having to resettle half that number of people. Considering its agriculture will already a loss, imagine doing that when food is so expensive that there's famine. It's going to be the reverse of The Grapes of Wrath, with "Calis" settling in Oklahoma, perhaps once more knocking the Indians off their land. This is a catastrophe that's about to happen, for the nation and for the world.

It's not going to be the only problem. Florida, another major densely populated state has problems with sea water level rising and salinating its aquifer. Governor Rick Scott, is taking the conservative ostrich approach to problem-solving and forbidding state workers from mentioning the words Global Warming, Climate Change or sustainability.

So, the writing is on the wall that we're going to have to relocate much of Florida's population as well. That's about 28 million people.

Therefore, in the short term, we could expect much of both California and Florida's populations to become environmental refugees. I estimate that to be probably to be 25-30 million people.  Socially, we're talking an unprecedented disaster for the country. The loss of agricultural production will be terrible enough. We'll see rising food prices and famine.

Politically, it's going to create an internal power-shift as California and Florida hemorrhage population. Internationally, the US will be finished as a super-power and will fighting to keep itself from being considered a "developing" country.

The crisis that's coming would be difficult with the best of preparations. Our government, however, is not prepared in the least. What has created the problem and what will continue to exacerbate it is that we put self-centered, greedy, superstitious morons in charge of our country at every level. The most frustrating thing for me since 1980 has been standing by helpless and watching our system put the worst people in charge. That is in charge of companies, in charge of industries, and in charge of our government at all levels.

If there's one thing in my life I wish this country could do over, it would be the election of Ronald Reagan. I remember at the time I was very hopeful about it, and if he didn't turn out well, I thought we could always turn him and the rest of the conservatives out at the next election. I never thought that decision would be so indefeasible. I never thought Reagan would spawn an entire propaganda industry. I never pictured that people raised within the propaganda wall would be so badly mis-educated and spoiled. But I began to see that as early as 1985. I had two stints in college in two different decades, and my classmates were very different in each. The ones I saw in the eighties were much more fascinated with power, much more materialistic and much more anti-union. The most striking thing was they would talk about guns. I never had discussions with anyone about guns in the '70s. Nobody thought the Second Amendment was under attack.

Nothing had really changed, in fact we had a more conservative government by that time. What did change, though, is the the media environment. Conservative propaganda, and I mean on the John Birch level, was gaining a credibility it never had and didn't deserve. Meanwhile, the news industry was being gobbled up by new conglomerates.

I believe if our country hadn't elected Reagan, it wouldn't be looking doom in the face while grinning stupidly, much the way Reagan did.  Carter would have been ready to tackle, and not ignore Global Warming. The Conservatives who rose to power with Reagan would only deny and ignore the problem, because it went contrary to their religion and/or ideology.

There's more to it than that, though. Voters did not have to believe these guys. They might have just laughed off conservative propaganda. But instead, they not only elected Reagan, but they let him make them dumber. 

For that, both the US and the Conservatives are going to be treated very badly by history-- if there is any. Because with Global Warming, the extinction of humankind is a possibility.