About that election

I stayed off social media since Black Tuesday. Trump's election really hit me hard. I had to rethink things.

Trump: Government raider

I've never had a good impression of Trump, not from the first time I read about the guy, sometime in Eighties. I'm stunned that enough people voted for him to put him into the White House. Even considering his opponent was Clinton. I won't say he really lost because he trails in the popular vote. To cite an analogy, she got more hits, but he got more runs.

How do the votes really break down between Red and Blue? Have a look. 

Blue Islands in the Red Sea

You can see on the election map that there's a serious divide in this country between the cities and the countryside. Cities everywhere, including the South vote Blue. Meanwhile, the countrysides have been neglected by Democrats, and they've been hit hardest by all the changes in the last forty years: outsourcing, downsizing. Often there was only one manufacturer in town, and Walmart came in and wiped out Mom 'n' Pop retail. Most rural areas and small towns are impoverished. They've been hit worst by trade agreements and outsourcing. Almost all government services go to the cities, which do have 5/6th of the population, but the surrounding areas might have worse problems. There's a huge level of poverty, aggravated by drug addiction.

I remember taking a vacation and going to a lodge in rural Missouri. It was a place Dad took me to 45 years ago. The river lodge was wonderful. But the town around it was just horrendously squalid. I went to the same gas station I saw as a boy, and it survived. Yet, to my amazement, the gas pumps were same ones from the early '70s. I could tell because they were mechanical, with the "slot machine" read out. They weren't kept like antiques, either. These things were almost rusted out. The surrounding town looked just as bad. Many boarded up businesses.

So, I could understand the desperation. There's nothing that racism or sexism would do to cure that. Building the border wall is not going to enhance anybody's economy. Unless it's infrastructure like a road, or a building, like the St. Louis Arsenal (built by the WPA), it doesn't get used, it gets maintained only. There's nothing deporting Hispanics will do to bring us jobs. When the median age of the White population (who voted for Trump) is forty-two-years old, it's not like a lot of those heavy manual labor jobs are going to be given to Caucasians. If you follow Trump's proposal and give rural farm jobs to urban Blacks, who might or might not want them, it sounds something like slavery. Registering Muslims and maintaining those records is going to be expensive, but since that's all computerized now, it's not going to create more than a few temporary jobs.

Trump's foreign policy is a different matter, and I need to do more research before I comment on it. Except for a few parts of it, such as Trump's denial of Global Warming. If he goes ahead and gets rid of the EPA, cancels the Paris Accord, and unleashes fossil fuel industry on the World, it probably means human extinction. My belief about that is that we have neither the time nor the statistical space on the charts to goof around with somebody like Trump.

Yes, I know I was wrong about the election and I could be wrong about all this. Rationally, I know the universe is intrinsically unpredictable. It's possible I can be right about the information available, right about my reasoning, and still be utterly wrong about what really happens. Still I can't help feeling a continuous sinking feeling about Trump. He's, at the very least, a very risky decision.

Then there's Trump's vindictiveness, already legendary, and his casual attitude toward nuclear weapons, which I find scary. Unless he does something to show any redeeming quality, I'm going to be living in fear for four years, at least. The majority of Americans certainly do have a different idea of what constitutes a leader than I do. It seems to be something closer to a bully with no ability to solve problems.

For myself, I'm going to try to be much more information-oriented with this blog. I'll write about information that I find, not just my so-witty commentary. However, I'm at the point with my work where I can't blog as much as I want. My entries are going to be scarce until my main project is finished.

(Not much of) An insurrection coming

I've always found Trump to be a revolting human being. So, despite the fact that we have a majority Republican Congress and most states now have both a GOP governor and legislature, if Trump loses the election is fixed. So, Trump calls on his Trumpies to rebel if Clinton wins. Not if cheating is demonstrated, but if Clinton wins, even if she's ahead in the polls. 

If Clinton is elected, it would be a miracle if Trumpies staged anything but the meekest armed rebellion. and the main reason why is actually sad.

Read interviews at any Trump rally. The ages you'll see are 36, 50, 62 and 65. As I pointed out in a prior post, the median age of the white, non-Hispanic population is 42, and white non-Hispanics are somewhere around 99.7% of Trump followers. They have a dearth of young, fit people. Same problem American businesses have, coincidentally. They can’t find enough native citizens to do heavy labor. Maybe Trumpies will have to recruit Hispanics (median age, 26) to rebel for them. That would be ironic.

There are secondary reasons: logistical problems due to Trump supporters live mostly scattered in vast rural areas. Organizing that into an effective insurrection is going to be nearly impossible. Then again, they can make a lot of trouble in the countryside. Not to the point of toppling the government or even forcing it to negotiate, only to the point of being bigger assholes. 

 Now, say they create an insurrection despite those hurdles. They’ll try to rebel without damaging any private property. Remember how the Oregon Boys at the Malheur Wildlife Refuge pointed out that they weren’t damaging or burning anybody’s property, unlike those black protesters? Remember how the Oath Keepers showed up, armed and uninvited to Ferguson, MO, to help protect private property from an insurrection? More than private property, Trumpies think they’re better than “those people.” Rioting and burning would be a step down on status. For that same reason, they won’t block highways either.

They could march or drive down those highways and take over their state capitals, (without destroying property) but states’ rights are also sacrosanct to them, and they don't see their states as part of the problem, except about eminent domain. Besides, those legislatures are largely Republican already.

Then they all have jobs, farms or ranches. They pride themselves on hard work. Remember they used to tell BLM protesters to “get a job.” For an rebellion, they'd have to abandon their jobs, take a risk of being fired or miss a year's harvest.

So, even if they find enough people, their values place terrible limit their options. They could march on Washington, but everybody’s going to know they’re coming. Once they get there, un-supplied, they’ll face a professional army.

The only other things they can do is occupy Federal land in a strategically negligible location and wait until the feds come and take them out. I’ll call that the Bundy Plan. Or, they can go the tantrum/terrorist route. “I want it my way or some random immigrants are going to die.”

Guess what they’ll likely do? That’s right. I'd call it tantrum terrorism, except people will actually die. Yes, it is what right wing reactionaries have already been doing.

That and harass people at the voting booths. It looks like they'll do just that. They can spot an illegal immigrant on sight, and they can tell how many times an African-American has voted, I guess by the numbers stamped on their foreheads.
 

TMI! TMI!

This entry still needs some work, but I'm putting it up like this because I'm out of time. This was a comment I was going to put up on FB, but I decided it belonged here. I'll continue to do edits on it until it's not so Facebooky.


People are terrible with processing and communicating information. Evolution didn't mold our minds to be truthful. To varying, but to always significant degrees, we all make mistakes, we all lie, and we deceive ourselves. That includes every religion, every faction, every family, every nation, every group humans can form. I won't go into why this is, only to say it's inherent to our evolution and to the way our minds operate.

These aren't so significant in a tribal society. But imagine information roiling through millions of people, all of it filtered and altered, and you should see that there's a problem. There's no way the information stays accurate. Even solid evidence is subject to distorted and false interpretations, added to other false information to create or support a narrative. And since people lie, and in building cohesion of a group, they're subject to lying or distorting information that would compel others to join their faction. That's not even opposed or mischievous people who manufacture evidence.

Without taking these into account, people overestimate their ability to get accurate information and draw conclusions. Once they have solid opinions, there's confirmation bias. Discovering something that supports your opinion feels good. Reconsidering and retracting is painful, an instinctive shame because if you were in a tribe, you just lost status.

Don't think you or anybody you trust isn't subject to any of this. If you evolved as a human, you are. Whenever I see or hear any news, I always ask is it mistaken? Is distorted by self-deception? Is it a lie? Or is it two or three of the above. More than likely the answer to one of those questions is: unknown. 

Not just immoral, but ineffective.

Trump's website detailed his policy proposal for immigrants. Like any racist plan, it's not just wrong, but it's a failure at addressing the problem it's purported to solve.

It would seem so direct: if we don't have higher paying jobs in our economy, all we have to do is get rid of all the immigrants who are taking them. Trump's website adds a fascist twist: after "humane" ethnic cleansing of Hispanics, relocate all the black youth in the inner to do their agricultural work. One thing I immediately find wrong with that is has Trump asked any Blacks about this? How would they like to be shipped out of their homes to do farm work, probably for very low wages? Farm work is some of the heaviest, most dangerous work in our economy.

However, this brutal plan could still succeed if not for a different issue, one which is the real reason why Hispanics are flooding in to the US to begin with. Have a look at this chart of US demographics by ethnic group.

 That chart above shows: with a median age in the forties, the white population of the US is not very fit to do heavy, physical labor. People in that group are also not as inclined to look for such work, thinking that they've basically outgrown it. The Black population is better, with a median age in the low thirties. But really, the best one is the US born Hispanic population, with a median age of 19.

When employers say that they can't fill their positions without hiring Hispanics (citizens or immigrants) they are being factual. The White non-Hispanic population is not only declining in terms of numbers relative to the rest of the US population, but it's older, and is getting older.

I believe that an economy only grows from the vitality and energy of its people, as long as the infrastructure is present. If I'm right, the US needs immigrants, of any status, for the economy to grow.

Therefore, shutting off the borders, or trying to, is simply going to leave many jobs unfilled. Most of the White population isn't fit for heavy manual labor. The Black population is somewhat better, but probably not good enough, and not so willing to leave urban centers to do agricultural work.

Donald Trump, and his followers, do not understand the demographic issue. The problem is not immigrants taking jobs, the problem is not enough native-born people to fill them.

Debate beatdown and my sigh of relief

With the most important election for a century coming soon, I know I've been silent about it in this blog. I don't have a good excuse for it, other than I haven't had a lot to say that hasn't been said. To me there's no hard decision. Clinton is the only candidate, and if you've decided to vote for Trump, there's not anything I can say to sway you.

I approach an election by imagining I'm going to hire the candidate to do a job. What does any employer read first before an interview? The resume. I don't listen so much to what candidates say, I look at what they've done. Consider the campaign to be one long job interview, a hiring process where the applicants have a right to one-up and back-stab each other.

For a series of cutthroat job interviews, where undercutting the other applicants is completely fair, I need to use judgment. Hillary Clinton is someone who has been falsely smeared for close to twenty-five years. Remember Vince Foster and his suicide, or am I that old?  Republicans started out accusing her of murder, and then got nasty.

If the attacks on President Obama have been severe, it's because the Republican lie machine practiced up on Bill, then Hillary Clinton. Bill was caught philandering, (after Republicans investigated him on Whitewater for years, finding nothing.) The remarkable thing about Hillary is none of the attacks have proved out. Her "scandals" have been investigated multiple times. She hasn't escaped them because she's a criminal mastermind, she's escaped them because she's innocent. FBI Chief ______ told Congressmen this 349872 times, and they still brought him into another hearing to tell them that 934072 more times.

As the always found nothing, they then laid on a big layer of conspiracy theories to confuse things and inflamed suspicions. It really surprised and discouraged me when Sanders supporters promulgated them. BTW, I did vote for Sanders in the primary, but now I'm totally behind Hillary Clinton.

I've never been so relieved about anything political than I was on Monday night when President-Elect Clinton trounced the flim-flam pretender, wanna-be Generalissimo Donald Trump through the mat. Afterward, neither Trump nor his supporters seem to understand that she dismembered their leader like a werewolf shredding a deer. Neither did The Young Turks who seemed to think she lost the first half-hour.

No Cenk. She shut him out. She put him in a headlock, ruined his comb-over and smeared his orange greasepaint. The only reason why you think he won the first half-hour is because you didn't begin to notice how one-sided it had been until the second.

How did TYT's miss Trump's Nixon-esque scowl as the debate began? If he looked tense, paranoid, and mean, she looked composed, rational, and humane. I had a feeling right then that she would win big.


Since then, Trump is now a gaffe a day, a scandal a week, a lie-every-three-minutes candidate. I'm so relieved that he's heading toward prison and the ash-heap of history. I look forward to the long-awaited Hillary Clinton presidency. If the Democrats can also get the Senate, that would really help.

However, important as all this now seems, it's all a dream, and none of it is going to matter in ten years. That's when the country will be fighting for its life as Global Warming takes hold. I'm off subject there, but I'd rather go through the worst crisis in history with Clinton as president rather than Trump, or anybody the Republicans will line up for the job.

And really, the party of climate change deniers deserves to die along with Trump's presidential aspirations. Their names should be read in anger for the remainder of human history.

Political ramble: Trump, a Batman Villain?

Admit it: doesn't Trump look, sound and act like an old-time Batman arch-villain? I mean, he has Joker-like makeup, but orange-face rather than green with whites around the eyes showing like a school-girl's slip. He wears that . . . solar panel thing on his head which apparently is supposed to boost his intelligence but fails spectacularly. He surrounds himself with beautiful women and his spoiled, long-neglected, grown-up kids, probably have nothing better to do but scheme to assassinate Dad and take over the family empire.

I'll just say I'm relieved that Trump is going down in fireball that could take the GOP with him.  Maybe I was foolish to ever think he was competitive, but in a world where the Repubs nominate Trump, anything is possible. That's still true. At the time that he was the de facto nominee, of course I was thinking how bad this could get?

There was this woman, this activist, who was a Bernie supporter. Then she came out and said she was voting for Trump and tried to explain this in a column. I just said, “No excuse,” and unsubscribed (that was on Twitter).

It's funny how none of the allegations against Hillary Clinton are sticking. Either she is greatest super-criminal mastermind ever, or she's always been innocent of anything Conservatives have accused her of. 


Failing at the newest email dump, the strategy now is to attack her health. (They shouldn't go there when their candidate resembles a radiation mutant.) The Boston Globe has run a story about how Hillary Clinton sometimes blanks out for hours. Guys, she's only been campaigning around the country for fourteen months. She's got to blank out some time. Remember when Obama babbled that there were 57 states?

What caused that? Exhaustion. Obama hides it so well, you could only tell it by the nonsense line.
I hope she'll catch up on sleep some time before the inauguration. 

8/28/16: Edited for syntax and clarity (end of first paragraph)

Trump is an Il Duce-bag

   Only three weeks have passed from the day Republicans chose Donald Trump as their nominee. Like a suicidal man who repudiates his choice one second before hitting the pavement, Repubs have been regretting nominating Trump ever since. Unfortunately, they can't pick up their brains from the sidewalk and put them back in. They will even more ashamed on November 8th, and long afterward.

    Trump is a fascist. The real McCoy, not some Godwin analogy in an argument over Final Fantasy. If you don't believe me, see his policy papers. Unlike Benito Mussolini, who had fascism defined and mapped out, Trump didn't become fascist by thought or design. (In Il Duce Mussolini's era, Fascism was cutting-edge evil.) No, Trump arrived at fascism due to beliefs his father passed on to him, beliefs that Trump has always been too narcissistic and stupid to re-examine. Those quaint World War II totalitarianisms (fascism, Nazism and Bolshevism) are especially attractive to sociopaths, including narcissist sociopaths like Trump.  

     So far, besides selling himself as a Messiah come to save our country from doom, Trump has made vindictiveness the theme of his campaign. He couldn't let it go with Khizr and Ghazala Khan, insulting them and the memory of their son. He had to sink himself and his party further and further with it. I can't wait to see how this guy will use nuclear weapons. No, actually, I can wait forever. And he has to tell Hilary Clinton that he'll get revenge if he loses. His followers might go 2A on her ass.

    Then there was the baby. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WEeY8ENxPDwIf you watch the video, Trump's tone when he said “get that baby outta here” was practically a snarl, and he makes fun of the woman for believing him momentarily.

   Aren't politicians supposed to kiss babies? A cliche I know. Not that Trump could have done it (I mean even infants have their standards and would recoil from Trump's orange sleaze.) Yet, he should have, at least, taken his cues from that very old politicians trope: you don't have to kiss your supporters' babies, but dote over them. Make your constituents admire your forbearance toward their kids. (What? You think they'd believe you'd like a crying baby? No, they just want to know the candidate is willing suffer with them. It's a bonding experience.)

    The GOP leaders didn't have much of a choice accepting Trump after their base fell in love with him. Still, it's impossible to feel sorry for the leadership. They did it to themselves from years of propaganda, much of it from Roger Ailes at Fox News, who fortunately has now been dismissed. They scared their base for years over terrorism, Islam, race, immigration, the Clintons, Obama, our foreign policy, our economy, our debt, taxes, and our military, and so on. How could they be so thunderstruck when their voters acted like scared rats and forced the nomination of Trump?

    Frightened people want a want protection, a “strong” leader. A muscle-head. A bully, but on their side. We have a word for this: a strongman. A guy who makes grandiose plans to displace whole human populations never realizing nor caring about the suffering that would entail. A leader who can't be bothered with pesky details like how many people his deportation plan might kill. An iron-fisted blockhead who will build a wall, and by God, force Mexico to pay through warfare, dirty tricks . . . or nukes. A man who revels in the use of force: the more extreme the better.  That's Trump: a man who asks about nuking countries three times in a one hour national security briefing, like nukes are his new toy, and he can't wait to try it out.

  
  (Of course, Trump denies this now, because “deny and lie” is his “shock and awe.” Politifact gives him a truth rating of about 15%. Fifteen percent of what he claims is true, or mostly true.)
  
    People who are voting for Trump should just ask themselves how they would like working for Trump. How would they like working for a boss who only tells the truth less than fifteen percent of the time?

    Ailes and the rest of the GOP lie machine were so good at scaring people, the GOP base is acting like scared Germans in the 1920s-30s. Germany's situation was far more dire than anything we're going through, and the threats it was facing were far worse than immigration and terrorism. Devastated by war, isolated by the world, having faced starvation and economic chaos three times. The Germans had good reason to be terrified that the Soviet Union was about to roll in from the East. Stalinist operatives, not liberals or progressives, were within their country wouldn't let the German people forget the threat.

    What do we have stacked up against us? At least Islamic terrorists have no armies of real consequence, and couldn't move them here even if they had them. To the other side of their country, the Germans had the intransigent French, Belgians, and the worldwide British Empire. Post-war, the French (with Belgium) invaded Germany in 1923, creating the German hyperinflation that wrecked the economy and starved the people over two years. This is only a few after the starvation caused by the allied blockade. To sum up, their everyday situation was more dire than ours.

    Fox News, Rush Limbaugh, Alex Jones and company have made the US people feel as desperate as the post-WWI Germans, an astounding accomplishment. They way they've lost control of that frightened, angry base might be an object lesson to why propaganda is no substitute for news. This election has to represent the biggest long-term political-strategy failure in US history. It's enough to make Patrick Buchanan pull out his pubic hair, or Rush Limbaugh swallow one his cigars.
   
    A week ago came a rumor that Trump might drop out. That would be the best outcome for everyone involved. I'm certain he must have talked about it. He has a terribly thin skin. However, the story disappeared and has the hallmarks of being just a rumor. If so, it's hard to see how the GOP will ever recover from Trump. Whether they do or not, already the Republicans can write off the 2016 election. Anybody else they put up against Clinton now is bound to lose by twenty points. They can't get on the ballot this late in most states. I'm expecting most of the Trump supporters to stay home if their strongman quits. 

    By running for the presidency (which we're led to believe is an entry level position) Trump is taking a tremendous risk. He's not going to deal with a loss well. Moreover, Trump University looks like it ruin him financially, and even put him in prison. That's why he's using goon threats and saying if he loses the election must be rigged.


 
For as long as I've been alive, people have been hoping for third party. At the rate things are going, the GOP is going to be the third party in 2020. If not the fourth. And Trump will have his Trump Party then. If he's out on parole.

    Last Note: As I was writing this blog, I saw that Wikileaks has released 23,000 more of Clinton's Secretary of State emails. They're marked with a “C” for classified. There's some dispute about whether she knew it meant classified. When I was in the military, we stamped things “Classified,” no acronyms or abbreviations about it. I know I would have seen the letter and presumed it probably meant “copyright.” I know if it were drawn to my attention, a few seconds of thought would  have told me it didn't mean copyright, but the point is, I wouldn't have assumed it meant classified. Because it seems stupid to me that anything like that should be marked with single letter.

   Today it came out that Judicial Watch, a conservative operation, found indications of Clinton cronyism in an email just released. But Clinton didn't send the email, and what's described there is someone seeking a job and being recommended by a few people at the Clinton Foundation. Somehow, this didn't compete well with Trumps threatening innuendos to Clinton.  

    About Wikileaks: does Julian Assange want Trump to win? I realize he has every reason to despise Hilary Clinton, (and probably more than I know about) but surely he wouldn't endanger the world by putting Trump in office, . My question is why isn't Wikileaks or Anonymous getting dirt on Trump? It would be damaging to Wikileaks integrity if it's now being used as Assange's instrument of revenge.

    And we should also ask: has Trump made a deal with Assange? He certainly seems to have an understanding with Putin.